After more than a decade being exiled from the governor’s office in California, Republicans are eyeing growing voter frustration with the dominant liberal politics of the state as a launching pad for a comeback next year.

Though lacking the statewide profiles of a deluge of Democratic contenders, a pair of GOP hopefuls with devoted conservative followings has jumped into the open 2026 gubernatorial race in recent months, hoping to persuade voters that only a radical shakeup can fix California’s problems.

“I don’t think there’s any other way of describing California today, other than the sick man of America,” said Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and onetime political adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who officially announced his candidacy on Monday. “It’s just undeniable that we’re in a terrible, terrible mess in California and we have to change direction.”

Hilton is kicking off his campaign today with an event in Huntington Beach, the city that has remade itself over the past few years into the bulwark of conservative resistance in California. He follows Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a hero of the right for defying state mandates during the COVID pandemic, who entered the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom in February.

Both believe that voters have grown sick of a generation of one-party Democratic rule in Sacramento and are banking on appeals to cut taxes and regulations — which they blame for making California unaffordable — to reach across traditional partisan lines.

“We are being led down a path of complete government control and socialism,” Bianco said in an interview. “This is no longer Democrat versus Republican. We’re at a point where it’s sane versus insane.”

But conservative candidates face a steep climb in a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger won a second term in 2006.

California Democratic Party Chairperson Rusty Hicks said the gubernatorial race is about more than just who can deliver for Californians. Voters know the governor has a powerful platform to stand up to the Trump administration and they won’t want a Republican in a role that is also critical to the future of the rest of the country and the whole world, he said.

“I certainly applaud them for continuing to try,” Hicks said. “But time and time again, we see California voters see their policies for what they are, which is not in line with the values of Californians.”

Slashing Taxes and Regulations

More than 20 people have already filed a statement of intention to run for governor in the 2026 primary as Republicans — though few will be serious candidates and some may never qualify for the ballot at all, which requires paying a filing fee or submitting thousands of signatures from registered voters.

Only two, including Bianco, have reported raising any money for their campaigns so far. While the first fundraising report of 2025 is not due until the end of July, major donations are filed with the state on a rolling basis.

Leo Zacky, a poultry farm heir and perennial candidate who received 1.3% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial primary and 0.1% in the 2021 recall election, seeded his campaign last month with $50,000 of his own money.

Meanwhile, since launching his campaign in February, Bianco has reported more than $380,000 in major contributions — enough to solidify himself as an early frontrunner for conservative voters, but a far cry from the millions that some Democratic contenders have already raised.

That leaves an opening for Hilton, 55, a native of the United Kingdom who moved to California in 2012 with his wife, a public relations executive for tech companies. Hilton has a built-in audience from hosting the weekly commentary program “The Next Revolution” on Fox News from 2017 to 2023, and Silicon Valley connections that could provide the money he needs to spread his message more broadly.

Hilton said his campaign will focus on practical solutions to rebuild a “ladder of opportunity,” so that every Californian can have a great job and a great home — though many of them are ideas that the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature is unlikely to ever support.

He would eliminate the state income tax for Californians below an unspecified income level. He wants to boost housing development by simplifying building codes, ending lawsuits under the infamous California Environmental Quality Act, and promoting construction of single-family homes. He believes the state needs mandatory phonics education and more accountability for teachers based on test scores to improve student achievement.

Though he has had a long career in politics, Hilton has never held elected office himself, which he argues is an asset.

“I would ask people, how good are the machine politicians in Sacramento who are involved in this one-party rule? How is that working?” Hilton said.

Bianco, 57, was a longtime sheriff’s deputy in Riverside County who ran for sheriff in 2018 out of frustration with what he called a “pro-criminal” approach to public safety in California. During his two terms as chief law enforcement officer of Riverside County, he has been a controversial but locally popular figure, refusing to enforce Newsom’s COVID lockdown orders or apologize for his brief affiliation with the far-right Oath Keepers militia.

He said he’s now running for governor because, like many Californians, he is tired of how the government has failed a state that people otherwise love. Many of his priorities align with Hilton’s: Bianco would like to completely abolish the state income tax, get rid of laws that he said are driving farmers and ranchers out of business, and leave environmental regulation to the federal government.

And echoing the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative, Bianco said he wants to eliminate wasteful spending such as the high-speed rail project and multibillion-dollar programs that have not reduced homelessness.

“The number one job of government is public safety,” Bianco said. “All the rest of it is fluff.”

The Anti-Trump Bump

California Republicans have been jubilant since the November election, when they flipped three seats in the state Legislature as President Donald Trump increased his vote share in nearly every county. At a party convention in Sacramento last month, they strategized over how to build on the momentum by leaning into issues such as affordability and crime that appear to be helping them gain ground, particularly among Latino voters.

“That tells us that Californians, on the local level and when it comes to the laws that are being passed in Sacramento, they’re looking to Republicans,” Corrine Rankin, the newly elected chairperson of the California Republican Party, said in an interview. “They’re rejecting the failures that are coming out of the Capitol by the Democrats.”

In a February survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, only 48% of likely voters said the state is going in the right direction, compared to 51% who said it’s going in the wrong direction — underwater, albeit the highest approval in two years.

To win the governorship next year, Rankin said the state GOP would eventually unite behind a candidate who can help Californians understand how that dissatisfaction is driven by what Democrats in charge of the state are doing.

“We need change here in California. Californians expect change and we’re positioned to deliver,” she said.

But the modest advances of the last election belie a GOP that is still far from competitive in California. Trump only received about 38% of the vote, losing to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points, and Republicans lost three U.S. House seats.

The 2026 midterms, in which Democratic anger at the Trump administration could produce an even more liberal electorate, will be a difficult political environment for the California GOP to snap a statewide shutout that dates back to 2010. In 2022, no Republican candidate for statewide office came within 10 percentage points of victory, and most lost by about twice that margin.

Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political consultant who is not working on the governor’s race, said there are substantive problems in California for serious conservatives to campaign on. “The Republicans have a lot of fodder if they did it the right way,” he said.

But candidates so closely tied to Trump are unlikely to overcome the deep anti-Trump sentiment in the electorate and win the governorship next year, Acosta added. “There’s zero chance of these Republicans.”

Both Hilton and Bianco are vocal Trump supporters. Hilton’s campaign even references the MAGA movement with a “make California golden again” slogan, and he rolled out an endorsement on the first day from Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the architects of Trump’s DOGE initiative.

Though some Democratic candidates are already tapping into the fury at Trump to fuel their campaigns, Hilton said the focus is misplaced.

“None of that helps a single person in California,” he said. “These are real issues. So if Democrat candidates want to deflect from that and become national political commentators, then good luck with that.”

Bianco said Democrats have done “outstanding psychological warfare” for decades convincing people that Republicans cannot win in California, which has suppressed conservative participation in elections. But things have finally gotten so bad, he said, that those frustrated voters will turn out next year and elect a Republican governor.

“We can’t blame Donald Trump. Donald Trump doesn’t have anything to do with California and the laws that have been passed in the past 20 years,” he said. “I believe that the majority of people, of hard-working Californians, have conservative leanings.”

This article was originally published by CalMatters under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

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Lee issued a statement Saturday as mayor-elect, saying that her chief opponent, Loren Taylor, had called to concede the April 15 race.

“While I believe strongly in respecting the democratic voting process and ballots will continue to be counted … the results are clear that the people of Oakland have elected me as your next Mayor,” she said. “Thank you, Oakland!”

Lee, 78, is a Black female trailblazer who represented the city in Congress for over two decades before retiring last year after running unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate.

A Call for Unity

“Oakland is a deeply divided City,” she said, adding that she “answered the call to run” so the community could work together to solve its problems.

Lee was endorsed by former Gov. Jerry Brown and other previous Oakland mayors who said she was the seasoned, uniting presence the city needed after a divisive recall of former Mayor Sheng Thao in November. Thao was indicted on federal bribery, fraud and conspiracy charges in January.

Oakland has about 400,000 residents and is deeply liberal and multicultural, the birthplace of the Black Panther Party and claimed by former Vice President Kamala Harris as her hometown.

Oakland’s Challenges

But Oakland also is reeling from homeless tents, public drug use, illegal sideshows, gun violence and brazen robberies that prompted In-N-Out Burger to close its first location ever last year.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has sent California Highway Patrol officers to help combat what he called an alarming and unacceptable rise in crime. And the city doesn’t have enough money to pay for public services.

Despite her high name recognition, the race was surprisingly heated with Taylor, 47, a former Oakland city council member who pledged to bolster police, reduce crime and revitalize the city’s economy.

Campaign Priorities

Taylor said in a statement that “while the outcome was not what we worked for and hoped for,” he was proud of the campaign and the bold ideas he introduced.

On the campaign trail, Lee emphasized the need for more community services as well as more police. Economic development, job creation and ensuring core city services like fire hydrants work properly are among her priorities.

She will finish out the remainder of Thao’s term and would be up for reelection in November 2026.

Lee was first elected to the U.S. House in 1998 and became best known nationally as the only lawmaker to vote against the 2001 authorization for the use of military force in response to the Sept. 11 attacks.

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Irish playwright Samuel Beckett’s tragicomedy “Waiting for Godot” centers on two men, Vladimir and Estragon, who hope, in vain, that the arrival of a mysterious man named Godot will bring meaning to their otherwise miserable lives.

It’s considered to be a perfect example of Europe’s post-World War fascination with what was termed the “theater of the absurd.” That’s why it leaps to mind when one considers the dynamics of the ever-growing cadre of Democratic candidates for governor in 2026.

Waiting Game for Democrats

As their numbers expand, they are waiting for former Vice President Kamala Harris to tell the world whether she will try to keep her political career alive by seeking the governorship.

Harris is apparently willing, ala Godot, to keep them waiting. Politico has reported that a month ago, at a pre-Oscars party, she told supporters that she won’t declare her intentions until late summer.

The uncertainty about her intentions affects what other hopefuls can do in the interim, such as raising campaign money. The big Democratic spenders, such as unions, the entertainment industry and Silicon Valley, are also waiting, leery about making commitments to other candidates until Harris decides.

It’s also evident that the lesser candidates, those little known and lacking deep-pocket support, such as former state Senate leader Toni Atkins, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former state Controller Betty Yee, would probably drop out if Harris runs.

But how about those who, in the absence of Harris, would be credible aspirants, such as Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Congressmember Katie Porter and, most recently, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra?

Kounalakis and Porter have dropped hints that they would defer to Harris, but Villaraigosa has indicated he would still run and Becerra, in announcing his candidacy this week, declared he’s in it to stay.

Related Story: Xavier Becerra Enters 2026 California Governor’s Race

Primary Dynamics

The state’s top-two primary system plays a significant role in how the field eventually forms. Although polls indicate that Harris would be the frontrunner in the June primary, another Democrat could hope to finish second and thereby qualify for a runoff in November in which Republican and independent voters could be decisive.

However, a crowded Democratic field that would fragment Democratic primary voters would also increase the likelihood that a Republican, such as Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, would finish second.

That situation, as past elections have shown, gives the Democratic nominee a huge advantage to win the governorship, given the state’s lopsided Democratic voter registration.

We saw that scenario last year when Congressman Adam Schiff indirectly helped Republican Steve Garvey finish second in the primary duel for a U.S. Senate seat, freezing out Katie Porter. It could happen to her again next year, were she to remain in the gubernatorial race and the Harris campaign emulates Schiff’s tactic to help Bianco or some other Republican finish second.

Voter Mood and Potential Challenges

A runoff between Harris and another Democrat could be a test of her campaign ability in the wake of stumbling badly in her 2019 bid for the presidency and again last year after being tapped by Democratic leaders to take on Donald Trump after they forced Joe Biden out of a re-election bid.

California’s voters have been in a restive mood of late, concerned about ever-rising living costs, especially for housing, the state’s seemingly intractable homelessness crisis and crime. Last year’s passage of Proposition 36, a measure to crack down on criminals, despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democratic leaders, is one indication of voters’ sour mood.

A Democratic candidate who exploits that angst and appeals to Republican and independent voters could mount a serious campaign against Harris — should she decide to run.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

Make Your Voice Heard

GV Wire encourages vigorous debate from people and organizations on local, state, and national issues. Submit your op-ed to bmcewen@gvwire.com for consideration.

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Becerra, who previously served as California’s attorney general, emphasized his decades of political experience in a campaign video released exclusively to POLITICO.

“I watched my parents — a construction worker and a clerical worker — achieve the California dream,” Becerra said in the video. “Can we do that today, with this affordability crisis? Very tough. But we’ve taken on these tough fights. … We can do that, but you need a leader who can be tough.”

Related Story: Rob Bonta Tells Politico That He’s Not Running for CA Governor

Becerra’s entry shakes up a race that had remained largely stagnant as Democratic candidates awaited a decision from Vice President Kamala Harris on whether she would run. His campaign has stated he will remain in the race regardless of her decision.

A former congressman and a key figure in legal battles against former President Donald Trump, Becerra is positioning himself as the candidate with the most experience to manage California. His tenure at the Department of Health and Human Services was marked by efforts to defend the Affordable Care Act and support abortion rights, though he faced criticism over handling migrant shelters and COVID-19 policy.

Becerra is one of several Latino candidates in the race, including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, potentially splitting Latino support.

Read more at Politico.

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In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the state Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.

In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.

Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.

Will Elon Musk’s Millions Pay Off?

Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.

The billionaire and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million, financing a potent ground game. An army of $25-an-hour canvassers has knocked on Trump voters’ doors, and pallets of glossy mailers have assured Republicans that Schimel is a Trump ally. A conservative nonprofit with ties to Musk has helped blanket the airwaves with ads bashing the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak on crime. And Musk’s giving includes $3 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has funneled the money to help Schimel.

That was all before Musk spoke for nearly two hours at a rally for Schimel on Sunday night in Green Bay.

If Musk’s extraordinary effort is successful, Wisconsin Republicans will be hopeful of friendly rulings by a conservative-controlled court on cases about abortion rights, voting access and the power of the state’s Republican-run Legislature.

It is possible, however, that Musk’s largesse comes at a political cost to Schimel. Polling shows that Musk is just as unpopular among Wisconsin Democrats as Trump is, but without as much residual loyalty from Republicans. Democrats have framed Crawford’s campaign around the idea that she is battling the world’s wealthiest person.

“We are in uncharted territory where we now have the richest man in the world who is trying to buy our election and the question is: Can he do it?” said Sarah Godlewski, the Democratic secretary of state of Wisconsin.

At her closing campaign rally Monday night in Madison, Crawford skewered Musk for appearing at his rally wearing the foam yellow headwear preferred by the state’s sports fans.

“Let me talk about my opponent, Elon Musk,” she said. “I saw a picture of him yesterday with a cheesehead on. First time he’s been in Wisconsin, he has not earned the right to wear a cheesehead.”

Is the Democratic Energy Finally Here?

Democratic hopes have slowly, cautiously started to rise.

The party crowed about flipping Republican-held state legislative seats in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. And on Saturday, voters in Louisiana rejected four proposed constitutional amendments backed by Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, that would have overhauled parts of the state’s tax codes and toughened penalties for juvenile offenders.

But none of those was nearly as expensive or prominent as Tuesday’s contests, and so the question of whether they were one-off upsets or a harbinger of a broader Democratic resurgence will be determined by what happens in Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Florida.

A victory by Crawford, a mild-mannered jurist, could put wind in the sails of a new Trump resistance, similar to Jon Ossoff in April 2017. While Ossoff, now a Georgia senator, lost what was then the most expensive House race ever, he became a fundraising juggernaut and demonstrated to scores of other candidates a path to viability against Republicans in the first Trump era.

Wisconsin Democrats have placed Musk at the center of their messaging operations in the race: To make sure voters got the point, they branded a statewide tour “The People v. Elon Musk.” Fearful of being drowned out by Musk’s millions, Democrats have helped Crawford shatter fundraising records.

“We are figuring out the path forward,” said state Rep. Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat who is her chamber’s minority leader.

Are Democrats Really Competitive in Florida?

House Republicans had expected their razor-thin majority to grow easily by two seats Tuesday in elections to replace members of Congress whom Trump picked last year to join his Cabinet.

One, Michael Waltz, became the national security adviser, while the second, Matt Gaetz, resigned his seat and later withdrew from consideration as attorney general amid an ethics investigation and Republican opposition.

Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, to replace Gaetz in the Panhandle and state Sen. Randy Fine to replace Waltz in a northeastern district that includes the NASCAR hub of Daytona Beach.

But Fine’s Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, has handily outraised him, prompting public warnings about Fine’s chances of a comfortable victory in a district Trump won by 30 percentage points. While Republicans are still expected to prevail, both parties are watching the margin of victory closely.

How Much Turnout Does $100 Million Buy?

The last race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, two years ago, cost about $56 million to become the most expensive judicial election in American history.

That election drew 1.8 million voters, or about 56% of the state’s turnout in the presidential election in 2020 — a high percentage for a state court race.

Now, with spending approaching $100 million, a key factor in the outcome is how much higher turnout will go.

America Votes, a Democratic voter mobilization group that is active in the state, estimates that just over 2 million Wisconsinites will vote, an increase that could account for either juiced Democratic interest or a successful Republican turnout operation by Musk. If that many Wisconsinites do vote, the turnout will be about 60% of the state’s turnout last November.

Is Musk the Future of Our Elections?

Musk has nearly unlimited wealth, the president’s ear and far-ranging power in Washington.

If he can single-handedly alter a state judicial race, how else might he inject himself into the country’s elections?

Victory in Wisconsin could embolden Musk to grow even more aggressive in throwing his billions behind Republican candidates for office this year and in the 2026 midterm elections. That could leave conservative candidates even more in thrall to Trump, if their primary financial benefactor continues to work out of the White House.

This is all happening while Musk stands to benefit financially from the candidates he has thrown his money and influence behind. Tesla, the electric vehicle company Musk controls, has a case against Wisconsin pending in the state’s courts, and Trump has gone out of his way to promote the billionaire’s products from the White House.

Defeat for conservatives, of course, would hardly mean that Musk would stop spending on elections. But it would prove to Democrats that he is beatable with enough money and base energy.

Still, while Democrats may see Musk as a figure who fires up their base and supercharges liberal fundraising, that is a lot easier for them to do when Wisconsin is the marquee race in the country and a focus of national attention.

If Musk were bankrolling dozens of Trump-allied candidates for governor, Senate and Congress across the country next year, it could be a far more difficult proposition to match his financial might with the same degree of grassroots enthusiasm when national attention is more diffuse.

—

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Reid J. Epstein and Emily Cochrane/Jim Vondruska
c. 2025 The New York Times Company

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The payment to a Green Bay man, which Musk announced Wednesday night on his social media platform X, is similar to a lottery that Musk’s political action committee ran last year in Wisconsin and other battleground states before the presidential election in November.

The upcoming election on Tuesday, filing a seat held by a liberal justice who is retiring, will determine whether Wisconsin’s highest court will remain under 4-3 liberal control or flip to a conservative majority. The race has become a proxy battle over the nation’s politics, with Trump and Musk getting behind Brad Schimel, the Republican-backed candidate in the officially nonpartisan contest.

Related Story: Trump and Musk Are Suffering From Soros Derangement Syndrome

Opposition Condemns Musk’s Payment

The campaign for the Democratic-supported candidate, Susan Crawford, blasted the $1 million payment from Musk as an attempt to illegally buy influence on the court in a state where Tesla, his electric car company, has a lawsuit pending that could end up before the court.

“It’s corrupt, it’s extreme, and it’s disgraceful to our state and judiciary,” Crawford spokesperson Derrick Honeyman said in a statement.

No legal action against Musk’s payments to voters has been filed in Wisconsin with the Supreme Court election five days away.

Jay Heck, executive director of Common Cause in Wisconsin, said the payments were a last-minute attempt to influence the election.

“Whether or not Wisconsinites will believe this is legitimate or not probably won’t be settled until after the election,” he said. “But this not what a Wisconsin Supreme Court election ought to be decided on. Races for the high court are supposed to be on judicial temperament and impartiality, not huge amounts of money for partisan purposes.”

Related Story: Musk Slams Government Waste, Calls Treasury Payments System ‘Totally Insane’

Musk’s Political Action Committee Tactics

Musk’s political action committee, America First, announced last week that it was offering $100 to voters who signed a petition in opposition to “activist judges.” He did not say there would be $1 million prizes at that time, but in his post on Wednesday said an additional $1 million award would be made in two days.

It was not clear who determined the winner of the $1 million or how it was done.

Musk’s political action committee used a nearly identical tactic before the White House election last year, offering to pay $1 million a day to voters in Wisconsin and six other battleground states who signed a petition supporting the First and Second Amendments.

It is a felony in Wisconsin to offer, give, lend or promise to lend or give anything of value to induce a voter to cast a ballot or not vote.

The Musk petition says it is open only to registered Wisconsin voters, but those who sign it are not required to show any proof that they actually voted.

Related Story: Musk Is Positioned to Profit Off Billions in New Government Contracts

Record-Breaking Campaign Spending

America PAC and Building for America’s Future, two groups that Musk funds, have spent more than $17 million trying to help elect Schimel, according to a tally by the Brennan Center for Justice. Musk also has given the Wisconsin Republican Party $3 million this year, which it can then give to Schimel or spend on the race.

More than $81 million has been spent on the race so far, obliterating the record for a judicial race in the U.S. of $51 million set in Wisconsin just two years ago, according to Brennan Center tallies.

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Rassamni tells Politics 101 he is running for Fresno City Council District 7 in 2026. The district stretches from central Fresno at Van Ness Avenue in the west to the city’s eastern border at Locan Avenue.

“I am on the streets. I know what the people want. They want safety, prosperity, and they want the place to be clean,” Rassamni said.

Changing zoning laws to help businesses and bringing more tax revenue to the city are Rassamni’s top priorities.

He plans to officially file within a month. He recently moved to the district from Clovis, but has operated his car wash business in central Fresno for 15 years.

“I lived in Clovis, but I spent all day long on Blackstone. So whenever people ask me, where are you from, I always say Fresno,” Rassamni said.

Fled Lebanon’s Civil War for American Dream

Rassamni was born in Liberia, moved to Lebanon as a child, and endured the Lebanese civil war. Speaking several languages, he fled to America in the mid-1980s.

“I always knew I would come over here,” Rassamni said. “We knew of the American Dream.”

He first moved to Houston, then Los Angeles. He came to the Central Valley in 2010.

In Fresno, he operated the Great American Car Wash. In 2021, it closed because of a fire. Rassamni said he plans to reopen, and has worked as a business consultant in the interim.

Rassamni is also a registered lobbyist with the city of Fresno.

He also operates a nonprofit, Success From Within, which focuses on housing the homeless.

Third Entrant in the Race

At 61, Rassamni almost as old as the two other candidates who have filed to run combined — Ariana Martinez Lott, 38, and Nav Gurm, 25.

Rassamni is registered as no party preference. Martinez Lott and Gurm are Democrats.

“When you run for the city, the party should not be involved. It should be about the people in the city. And this is what I’m running for,” Rassamni said.

Technically, the Fresno City Council race is nonpartisan.

Gurm, a public affairs consultant and law student, said he is introducing himself by walking neighborhoods. He has also held a series of meet-and-greets.

“I’m humbled by the tremendous support we’ve received as our message resonates. Our community wants a fighter at City Hall, and I’m ready to be that advocate on Day 1. I welcome AJ Rassamni to the race and look forward to a respectful campaign where voters can compare and contrast the candidates,” Gurm said.

Gurm reported raising $50,101 as of Dec. 31, 2024. That includes a $15,000 loan to himself.

Martinez Lott has the backing of Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula. He contributed $5,500 on March 10 (and filed March 24) from his campaign account. Arambula intends to run for city council District 3 in 2026.

A former staffer for Fresno City Councilmember Miguel Arias, Martinez Lott has worked as a community organizer since.

Martinez Lott also lists Maria Lemus as one of the principal officers for her campaign account. Lemus is Arambula’s district director.

The incumbent, Nelson Esparza, terms out after the 2026 election. He is running for state Senate in District 14.

Politicker …

Brandon Vang continues to receive contributions, a week after the special election for Fresno City Council District 5. Kao Vang, a retired resident of Leominster, Massachusetts; and Meng Xiong, listed as a substitute teacher at Fresno Unified, each gave $1,500. Vang currently leads the race with a shade over 50%.

So far so good with the manual ballot tally from last week’s special election, Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters James Kus told Politics 101. Just under 4,000 ballots were hand counted, with about 600 remaining for today, Kus said. The county found no discrepancies.

“As we have both seen over the past five years, Fresno County’s Dominion tabulation system is incredibly accurate — the only issues we have identified in that period were due to human adjudication errors when reviewing write-in votes, which are low in number this election,” Kus said.

The next update will be 5 p.m. Wednesday.

Rob Fuentes, an assistant U.S. attorney, has launched his website for a Fresno City Council in 2026. Affordable housing is the on the top of his to-do list. Fuentes is a former city planning commissioner who is now a State Center Community College District trustee.

Assemblymember Joaquin Arambula paid $182 from his campaign account for his chief of staff, Eusevio Padilla to stay Dec. 18-20, 2024 at the DoubleTree hotel in Fresno. His campaign told Politics 101 Padilla comes down to Fresno occasionally for official and campaign work. State funds are not allowed for the latter.

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Vang stands at 50.14% as of Thursday afternoon. Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas is second with 34.97%, followed by Jose Leon Barraza (12.31%), Paul Condon (2.33%), and write-in Nickolas Wildstar (0.22%).

If Vang’s margin holds, a runoff election isn’t necessary. However, if his total falls below a majority, Vang — a Sanger Unified trustee — and Fresno Unified Trustee Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas will meet in a July 15 winner-take-all election.

With the vote update, Vang is seven votes above 50%.

At the end of counting on Election Day on Tuesday, Vang was 18 votes over the majority mark.

Thursday’s update saw 860 new votes counted. Vang took 48.6% of those votes, underperforming the first two updates on Tuesday. Jonasson Rosas scored 36.74% in the Thursday update, a better result for her than the first two reports.

The March 18 special election was to fill the seat vacated by Luis Chavez, after he won an election to the Fresno County Board of Supervisors. He is married to Jonasson Rosas.

Several Votes Left to Count

Fresno County Election Clerk/Registrar of Voters James Kus reported 30 ballots are left to be counted: 10 conditional registration/provisional ballots and 20 damaged ballots needing duplication.

About 140 ballots have signature issues and voters have until April 2 to resolve them.

In addition, any ballot mailed by the deadline that the elections office receives by Tuesday, March 25, will be counted.

The next count update is Wednesday, March 26.

Election law mandates a 1% hand count tally. Because of the volume — fewer than 4,600 votes thus far — and the race being was the only item on the ballot, Kus said all ballots will be hand counted. That takes place next Monday starting at 9 a.m.

Kus will certify the votes by April 4. Then, the city council will adopt the results at its April 10 meeting, Fresno City Clerk Todd Stermer said.

On April 10, Vang will be sworn in or the council will set the July 15 runoff date. Elections must be called 90 days in advance and take place on a Tuesday, according to state law.

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Now, the billionaires’ influence on politics is colliding in a spring election that will decide whether conservatives or liberals control the supreme court in an important presidential battleground state. Both Musk and Soros have spent large sums on the race for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, making them easy targets in a debate between the two candidates Wednesday.

While the race is officially nonpartisan, Democrats and Republicans have lined up behind each candidate. Former state Attorney General Brad Schimel, who is backed by Republicans, called Soros a “dangerous person to have an endorsement from.” The philanthropist has spent $1 million to benefit his opponent, Democratic-supported Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford.

She fired back by saying Musk “has basically taken over Brad Schimel’s campaign.” The Tesla and SpaceX CEO who is running Trump’s massive federal cost-cutting initiative has funded two groups that have together spent more than $10 million to promote Schimel.

The exchange highlighted how the April 1 election, which will affect looming cases on abortion, voting rules, congressional district boundaries and more, has drawn national scrutiny in a year when there are just a handful of consequential elections. It also showed how the two polarizing billionaires are playing an outsized role in the race, as each side seeks to weigh down the other with political baggage.

Those tactics make sense in an off-year, spring election when voters may not know the candidates or be paying much attention, said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist.

“You’ve got to tie it to national themes,” he said. “The overall strategy is, how can you scare your base into making sure they show up at the polls?”

Soros has been reviled by conservatives for years for his donations to liberal prosecutors and other left-wing and anti-authoritarian causes. Musk, a newer power player in political giving, has angered liberals because of his role in Trump’s campaign last year — his super PAC spent about $200 million to help get Trump elected — and his efforts to slash federal government services and staff through the new Department of Government Efficiency.

Soros Has Been a Longtime Target of Conservatives

The 94-year-old Hungarian American and Jewish billionaire has been a conservative target for decades.

Core to their ire is the spending he and affiliated groups have done to elect liberal prosecutors — officials that Republicans argue are too soft on crime. GOP lawmakers have called attention to Soros’ donations in efforts to recall those prosecutors, saying the people he supports have put communities at risk.

Trump also has used Soros to tarnish the credibility of people and groups he doesn’t like. In a recent executive order aiming to punish the law firm Perkins Coie, he said the firm “has worked with activist donors including George Soros to judicially overturn popular, necessary, and democratically enacted election laws.”

Attacks on Soros often veer into antisemitic and conspiratorial territory, with some falsely casting him as backing violent protesters or having secretive family ties.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — an ally of Trump — has boosted that trope by promoting the belief that Soros is engaged in covert plots to destabilize Hungary. Pressure from the autocratic leader prompted a university Soros founded to move its programs from Budapest to Vienna in 2018.

Ahead of the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Soros gave $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party. He made a donation in the same amount ahead of this year’s race, prompting Schimel and his supporters to invoke Soros in campaign messaging and ads.

“Susan Crawford takes her marching orders from George Soros, (Illinois Gov.) JB Pritzker, anti-ICE sheriffs, and Defund the Police radicals,” Schimel’s campaign wrote on X earlier this month. “Which side are you on?”

Musk’s New Political Relevance Gives Democrats a Rebuttal

Musk hurtled onto the political scene in the last couple of years, spending big money to secure Republican control of the federal government and in states where he has businesses.

Last year, he spent nearly $300 million on Republican campaigns, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The bulk of that was to boost Trump, but a super PAC he founded also spent millions on U.S. House races.

Musk also has dabbled in state politics in Texas, where he has moved several of his businesses. He became involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race shortly after Tesla sued the state in a dispute over a law barring automakers from operating or controlling vehicle dealerships. The case ultimately could end up before the state Supreme Court.

The curious timing, his unabashed support for Trump and his chaotic moves in the federal government, make Musk a dream target for the left, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki, who is not involved in the race.

“Having a villain makes everything easier,” he said. “It’s not a cue to the partisans – it’s a clarion call. Crawford is with us, and Schimel is in the pocket of Elon Musk, the most unpopular person in America right now who can’t get off the front page.”

Crawford has leaned into the attacks, referring to Musk as “Elon Schimel” in the debate. She also reminded voters of Musk’s actions at DOGE, such as recommending the firing of government workers helping to fight the avian flu outbreak.

The race, which is seen as a litmus test of how a battleground state’s voters are responding to the first months of the Trump presidency, also might offer clues into how they view Musk’s role in the administration.

The Strategy Isn’t Without Risk

A challenge both candidates face is that as they attack each other for being supported by notorious high-dollar donors, they must rationalize having their own wealthy benefactors.

Crawford needs to associate Schimel with Trump as much as possible to win, said Brandon Scholz, a former Republican strategist in Wisconsin who now identifies as an independent. The Musk donations help with that – as do flyers distributed to voters by Musk’s America PAC that say Schimel will ” support President Trump’s agenda.”

There could soon be more opportunities to show those ties: A Monday town hall billed as a get-out-the-vote effort for Schimel will be co-hosted by one of Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., and political activist Charlie Kirk.

Schimel, meanwhile, needs diehard Trump voters to come out to the polls, said Scholz. It’s a “double-edged sword,” he said, because it means the candidate will have to gamble with turning off some voters.

Soros also has less name recognition than Musk right now, Scholz said. That could be one reason why Schimel has relied more in recent weeks on traditional conservative messaging, such as accusing his opponent of letting criminals off with lenient sentences.

During the debate, he said he has no control over outside donations or the messages they spread. He also said he wouldn’t give Trump or Musk special treatment if he’s elected to the court. Instead, Schimel said, he treats the courtroom like a baseball umpire would — “not rooting for any team.”

Crawford also distanced herself from Soros’ donation by noting it was made to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, which has endorsed her. She said while Schimel has revealed how he’ll vote on some pending cases, she has “never promised anything, and that is the difference.”

Swenson reported from New York.

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The mailer sent to voters for the March 18 special election for the District 5 seat vacated by Luis Chavez makes the accusation that candidate Brandon Vang “engaged in the alleged statutory rape of a 15-year-old girl.”

The mailer includes an image of a 1993 court document, when Fresno County sued Vang, establishing paternity, and to pay child support. Vang was 20 when the child was born.

A child with that same name and birthdate, now 31, is listed in the Vang household, according to voting records.

Vang: ‘False Claims Used as Political Attacks’

Vang, who is a Sanger Unified School District trustee, denied the allegations.

“I want to be clear — these allegations are completely false and deeply hurtful. I have always prioritized my family’s well-being and integrity,” Vang said in a statement.

“The child support case mentioned in the flyer involves my wife of 30 years and our son, who has lived with me his entire life. It’s disheartening to see false claims used as political attacks, but I remain committed to honesty and serving our community with transparency.”

Vang was not immediately available to answer follow-up questions.

“Our campaign will pursue all legal options to expose those behind these misleading and false mailers and hold them accountable for violating campaign finance laws,” said Pedro Ramirez, who is Vang’s campaign manager.

“These individuals are hiding behind sham organizations funded by dark money special interests. The public deserves full transparency on who is financing these political attack ads to protect the integrity of our local elections and ensure they remain fair, open, and free from outside interference.”

Related Story: With Immigrant Backgrounds, Vang, Leon Barraza Seek Fresno Council Seat

No Documents for Group Behind the Mailer

The name listed on the mailer, Fresno Future Forward, does not appear to have an online presence. It says it is “not authorized by a candidate or candidate’s committee.” The address listed on the mailer is for a UPS Store in downtown Fresno.

A postal code on the mailer indicates it was printed and mailed by Professional Print & Mail, Inc., a Fresno company that several local campaigns use. The company confirms that postal code is unique to them.

Sherry Yang, spokesperson with the state Fair Political Practices Commission, said generally, any group spending $1,000 a year on independent expenditures fall under the state Political Reform Act. The city of Fresno would be responsible for enforcing at the local level.

City Attorney Andrew Janz said he has not received any complaints about Fresno Future Forward. City code, he said, gives his office “broad authority” to take legal action, including fines.

Fresno Future Forward has no independent expenditure campaign spending documents filed with the city of Fresno.

“An ‘independent expenditures’ is a payment for a communication that expressly advocates the election or defeat of a clearly identified California state or local candidate – and the communication is not coordinated with or ‘made at the behest’ of the affected candidate or committee,” Yang said.

Generally, Yang added, disclosures are required on the advertisement.

Campaign consultants GV Wire spoke with said the cost to campaign mailers to residents varies, depending on how many voters received the material. One expert said it could cost $15,000 to send a mailer to all voters in the district. Printing alone, another consultant said, could reach $1,000.

Only two groups have filed paperwork with the city specific to the March 18 special election — Valley Forward Action Fund, and Outfront Media — both in support of candidate Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas.

Valley Forward Action Fund received major contributions from the Fresno Teachers Association PAC for Education ($4,000), and the United Food and Commercial Workers 8 Golden State PAC Small Contributor Committee ($10,000).

Outfront Media supplied more than $5,000 in billboards for Jonasson Rosas.

The National Association of Realtors has a website in support of Jonasson Rosas, with a disclosure, and an NAR Fund spokesperson said the group has filed an independent expenditure report with the Fresno city clerk.

Do Negative Mailers Work?

Thomas Holyoke, political science professor at Fresno State, has doubts on whether negative campaign materials work.

“For the most part, those mailers are not that effective because people are generally pretty distrustful of anything they hear about politics,” Holyoke said.

“They can, however, do two things. First, for people who are already inclined to believe what the mailer says, it is reinforcing and might push those people to further spread the negative (and perhaps untrue) message. The other thing they can do is put some doubt in the minds of voters who do not pay much attention to politics and elections. Sometimes, a little doubt in a few people is all you need to switch enough votes to swing an election.”

Jonasson Rosas Says She’s Not Involved With the Mailer

Jonasson Rosas  said she has no involvement with the mailer.

“I’m focused on my qualifications, proposals, and the future of D5 the resident want to see,” Jonasson Rosas said via text.

A third candidate, Jose Leon Barraza, did not respond to GV Wire’s request for comment before publication of this story.

Chavez, who is married to Jonasson Rosas, declined to comment about the mailer to GV Wire. As an incumbent, Chavez defeated Vang for the council seat in 2022, winning 55% of the vote.

Documents Marked ‘Confidential’ by the Court

A source sent GV Wire a copy of the front page of the 1993 lawsuit. Although the document is listed on the Fresno County court system website, a physical copy at the archive building is not available. A clerk said the file is marked confidential, thus not available to the public.

The Fresno County District Attorney’s office said its system shows no criminal record for Vang.

California law currently defines statutory rape as “Unlawful sexual intercourse is an act of sexual intercourse accomplished with a person who is not the spouse of the perpetrator, if the person is a minor. For the purposes of this section, a ‘minor’ is a person under 18 years of age and an ‘adult’ is a person who is 18 years of age or older.”

The law in the early 1990s still set the age of consent at 18, with the spousal exception. Since then, the law removed gender-specific language, and crafted more severe punishment for a larger age gap between perpetrator and victim.

About the Election

Vang is one of five candidates seeking to succeed Chavez  as the city’s southeast representative. Chavez left the council in the middle of his term after winning election to the Fresno County Board of Supervisors in November.

Like Vang, Jonasson Rosas is a trustee, serving on the Fresno Unified School Board as the Roosevelt High area representative.

Others running include Paul Condon, and Nicholas Wildstar as a write-in.

The front and back of a mailer sent to Fresno City Council District 5 residents making accusations against Brandon Vang.

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